Market Crash
Posted on | August 10, 2009 | No Comments
With over 60% of Season 10 complete it looks like Yu-Gi-Oh! Online is going to hit a fourth TP recession which is bad for activity and bad for Konami. YGO Online International looks at what hese TP recessions are and how they affect the game.
What is a TP Recession then?
Simply put, a TP Recession is when the total TP accumulated by the top 1,000 duelists (as ranked by Konami’s TP ranking) for one season is less than that of the previous season.
As Yu-Gi-Oh! is run entirely by Konami as a profit-making venture, the continued rise of TP totals is very much needed for Yu-Gi-Oh! Online to be maintained. Make no mistake, as soon as Yu-Gi-Oh! Online ceases to be a potential profit-making venture, the plug will be pulled.
As of Season 9 there has been three TP Recessions, each of which has lasted for one season and none of which have stalled the overall growth in TP accumulation since Season 1.
TP Recession #1 – Season 2 (-40.6%)
Following the initial Yu-Gi-Oh! Online season, Season 2 saw a fall in TP accumulation by just under 41%. This initial fall was caused mainly be activity drop off due to the game being down and playing host to numerous bugs and other problems as it lurched out of the beta stages. Due to a great deal of maintenance, there simply wasn’t as much time to earn TP as in the previous season, adding to the recession.
Although this is statistically the largest recession, it is also the least important as it came in the very early stages of the game’s history during a general period of uncertainty and instability as Yu-Gi-Oh! Online took its first faltering steps.
Season 3 saw the TP recover in a big way, increasing by around 26% over Season 1 and over 55% from Season 2.
TP Recession #2 – Season 5 (-19.7%)
Season 5 was the season in which the old ancient Egyptian themed version of Yu-Gi-Oh! Online was replaced with the shinier Yu-Gi-Oh! DX inspired Duel Evolution version.
As with any big change over, difficulties were rife, down time was up and, predictably, some people just didn’t like the change and took time to come around, with some leaving for good. Still, the severity of this recession were likely lessened by many players being eager to explore this new game as soon as possible.
Although the change proved conscientious at the time, it certainly paid dividends from Konami once the transition was complete. Season 6 saw TP accumulation rise by 7.8% from Season 4 and 25.9% from the recession hit Season 5 itself to form a new peak in activity.
TP Recession #3 – Season 8 (-26.6%)
Season 7 saw total TP accumulation rise still higher but Season 8 saw a third TP recession afflict the game as that bane of the online game raised its head once again; maintenance.
Season 8 saw an astonishingly high amount of maintenance and, as such, many players simply could not play as much as they would like and some likely just switched off and did something else.
The season is supposed to be spread over five months but, in reality, with all the downtime, Season 8 likely lasted just over three in terms of activity.
Season 9, of course, showed that the demand was still there, with a new record in TP participation being set, an increase of 34.2% over the previous, recession struck, season and 10.3% over Season 7.
And the Future
At the time of writing, projections estimate that a total of 6,624,073 TP will be accumulated this season, a fall of 31% from Season 9 and the biggest since the original recession in Season 2. The obvious cause that can, and will, be attributed to this is the worldwide global economic crisis which I assume you have not failed to notice.
However, other issues within the game are also hampering its popularity. A lack of real, noticeable updates to the game is hurting the online competitive game and many players feel the game is growing increasingly rigid and static, curtailing incentive to play.
It is unknown how much future growth lies in store for Yu-Gi-Oh! Online but eventually, due to their being a finite number of people willing to play such a game regularly, the figures will plateau and will likely even dip slightly. This may even be now. Season 9’s TP total of 9.6 million may be the most the game ever generates, it may not.
But, for now at least, barring the rare and very explainable blips we’ve covered here, Yu-Gi-Oh! Online continues to be a success even with another recession looming on the horizon. It’s when the only explanation for a recession is that people simply don’t care any more that we should be worried.
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